원격상관을 이용한 동아시아 6월 강수의 예측 KCI

Title
원격상관을 이용한 동아시아 6월 강수의 예측
Alternative Title
A Prediction of Precipitation Over East Asia for June Using Simultaneous and Lagged Teleconnection
Author(s)
이강진; 권민호
KIOST Author(s)
Lee, Kang Jin(이강진)Kwon, Minho(권민호)
Alternative Author(s)
이강진; 권민호
Publication Year
2016-12
Abstract
The dynamical model forecasts using state-of-art general circulation models (GCMs) have some limitations to simulate the real climate system since they do not depend on the past history. One of the alternative methods to correct model errors is to use the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) correction method. CCA forecasts at the present time show better skill than dynamical model forecasts especially over the midlatitudes. Model outputs are adjusted based on the CCA modes between the model forecasts and the observations. This study builds a canonical correlation prediction model for subseasonal (June) precipitation. The predictors are circulation fields over western North Pacific from the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5) and observed snow cover extent over Eurasia continent from Climate Data Record (CDR). The former is based on simultaneous teleconnection between the western North Pacific and the East Asia, and the latter on lagged teleconnection between the Eurasia continent and the East Asia. In addition, we suggest a technique for improving forecast skill by applying the ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) to individual canonical correlation predictions.
ISSN
1598-3560
URI
https://sciwatch.kiost.ac.kr/handle/2020.kiost/1383
Bibliographic Citation
대기, v.26, no.4, pp.711 - 716, 2016
Publisher
한국기상학회
Keywords
Monsoon precipitation; teleconnection; subseasonal forecast; canonical correlation analysis; ensemble prediction
Type
Article
Language
Korean
Publisher
한국기상학회
Related Researcher
Research Interests

climate dynamics,climate prediction,기후역학,기후예측

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