Long-Term Analysis of Tropical Cyclones in the Southwest Pacific and Influences on Tuvalu from 2000 to 2021

Abstract

Tropical cyclones frequently occur in the Southwest Pacific Ocean and are considered one of the driving forces for coastal alterations. Therefore, this study investigates the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones from 2000 to 2021 and their influence on the surface winds and wave conditions around the atoll nation Tuvalu. Cyclone best-track and ERA5 single-level reanalysis data are utilized to analyze the condition of the surface winds, significant wave heights, mean wave direction, and mean wave period. Additionally, the scatterometer-derived wind information was employed to compare wind conditions with the ERA5 data. On average, nine cyclones per year originated here, and the frequency increased to 11 cyclones during the last three years while the intensity decreased by 25 m/s (maximum sustained wind speed). Besides, a total of 14 cyclones were observed around Tuvalu during the period from 2015 to 2021, which showed an increase of 3 cyclones compared to the preceding period of 2001 to 2007. During cyclones, the significant wave height reached the highest 4.8 m near Tuvalu, and the waves propagated in the east-southeast direction during most of the cyclone events (52%). In addition, prolonged swells with a mean wave period of 7 to 11 seconds were generated in the vicinity of Tuvalu, for which coastal alteration can occur. After this preliminary analysis, it was found that the waves generated by cyclones have a crucial impact in altering the coastal area of Tuvalu. In the future, remotely sensed high-resolution satellite data with this wave information will be used to find out the degree of alterations that happened in the coastal area of Tuvalu before and after the cyclone events.