A Prediction of Northeast Asian Summer Precipitation Using a Dynamical/Statistical Model

Title
A Prediction of Northeast Asian Summer Precipitation Using a Dynamical/Statistical Model
Author(s)
Kwon, Minho; Lee, Kang Jin
KIOST Author(s)
Kwon, Minho(권민호)Lee, Kang Jin(이강진)
Alternative Author(s)
권민호; 이강진
Publication Year
2015-08-03
Abstract
Seasonal prediction skills of the intensity of the Northeast Asian summer monsoon are relatively low using state-of-the-art general circulation models. It is introduced that seasonal-mean precipitation in Northeast Asian region are strongly correlated to western North Pacific (WNP) subtropical High variability in summertime. The relationship between Northeast Asian and WNP summer monsoons keeps with a high correlation coefficient over the entire period. Many general circulation models fail to predict the Northeast Asian summer precipitation but can well capture and predict interannual variability of the western North Pacific subtropical High, which dominates climate anomalies in the western North Pacific-East Asian region. Besides, interannual variability of the Northeast Asian summer monsoon is highly correlated to the WNP subtropical High variability. Based on this relationship, we suggest a seasonal prediction model using several coupled general circulation models and canonical correlation analysis for Northeast Asian summer precipitation anomalies in this study. This methodology provides with considerable benefit of seasonal prediction skills for Northeast Asian summer rainfall anomalies
URI
https://sciwatch.kiost.ac.kr/handle/2020.kiost/39603
Bibliographic Citation
Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 12th Annual Meeting, 2015
Publisher
Asia Oceania Geosciences Society
Type
Conference
Language
English
Publisher
Asia Oceania Geosciences Society
Related Researcher
Research Interests

climate dynamics,climate prediction,기후역학,기후예측

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