A Prediction of Northeast Asian Summer Precipitation Using a Dynamical/Statistical Model

Abstract

Seasonal prediction skills of the intensity of the Northeast Asian summer monsoon are relatively low using state-of-the-art general circulation models. It is introduced that seasonal-mean precipitation in Northeast Asian region are strongly correlated to western North Pacific (WNP) subtropical High variability in summertime. The relationship between Northeast Asian and WNP summer monsoons keeps with a high correlation coefficient over the entire period. Many general circulation models fail to predict the Northeast Asian summer precipitation but can well capture and predict interannual variability of the western North Pacific subtropical High, which dominates climate anomalies in the western North Pacific-East Asian region. Besides, interannual variability of the Northeast Asian summer monsoon is highly correlated to the WNP subtropical High variability. Based on this relationship, we suggest a seasonal prediction model using several coupled general circulation models and canonical correlation analysis for Northeast Asian summer precipitation anomalies in this study. This methodology provides with considerable benefit of seasonal prediction skills for Northeast Asian summer rainfall anomalies