A sensitivity analysis of typhoon wind models with wind observatios in Northeast Asian Sea

Abstract

The sea-surface winds during the passage of 64 typhoons for 1979-1999 were simulated using two different typhoon wind models, i.e, typhoon parametric model (TPM) and primitive vortex model (PVM). The model hindcast winds were compared with the winds observed at JMA ocean buoys (22001 and 21002) and Kyushu ocean observation tower. The analysis of rms and relative errors between hindcast and observed winds was made to find the accuracy and sensitivity of the typhoon wind prediction models. Both hindcast winds of TPM and PVM underestimate the observed typhoon winds, but PVM winds are more closer to the observations with less rms and relative errors. Relative errors of two model winds were small within 200km from typhoon center, but TPM’s relative errors increase up to 70% as the radial distance from typhoon center increases beyond > 200km although PVM’s relative errors remain in 20% with less sensitive to the distance from typhoon centers.