동북아시아 지역해에서 해상상태 장기 시뮬레이션에 의한 설계파 산출

Abstract

Two types of long term wave climate information are desired for many marine and coastal applications especially for the design of coastal structures: the design waves and operational waves. In conventional methods of design criteria estimation, it is assumed that the climate is stationary and the statistics and extreme analysis of long-term measured or hindcasted data can be used in statistical predictions for the future. However, such a steady state assumption is questionable due to global climate change.Since the availability of field wave data for the waters around Korean peninsula is limited in its ability to cover a significant period of time so as to provide reliable wave statistics, the wave climate information needs to be generated by means of long-term wave hindcasting using available meteorological data. Design wave heights for the return periods of 30, 50 and 100 years for 16 directions at each grid point of a grid with 18 km resolution for the waters around Korean peninsula have been estimated by means of extreme wave analysis using the detailed wave simulation data for major typhoons that affected Korea since 1951 and continuous hindcasted wave data since 1979.Methods of extreme statistical analysis that consider recent extreme events like typhoon Maemi in 2003 were evaluated for more stable results of design wave height estimation for the return periods of 30-50 years, which is commonly applied in designing coastal structures like breakwaters. The impact of global climate change in the estimation of design wave height for the return periods of 30 and 50 years was analyzed and will be discussed