생태학적 모델을 이용한 유류유출 사고에 의한 자연 수산자원 피해의 추정

Abstract

Damage assessment based on in situ surveys for oil spills in marine environment is limited by fundamental difficulties as well as tremendous expenses. Except for intertidal zones, the damage is not preserved well. Also such surveys are usually confined to adult organisms. To overcome these limitations a computer model, NRDAM/CME, was developed in the case of USA (Reed et al., 1989), where an acute toxicity data base was used to assess indirect damages through food webs and loss due to recruitment as well as adult losses. In the present study damage assessment of natural biological resources for hypothetical oil spills is attempted using a computer model for hypothetical spills of Bunker C and heavy crude oil. In the model, the logical structure of NRDAM/CME was adopted, and biomass and productivity database were compiled for the Korean waters. The results showed that the damage increased in a nonlinear fashion as the spill amount increased. The magnitude of the damage depended upon the chemical properties of oil viscosity and solubility in particular, which implies that usage of oil dispersant might increase the damage by dispersing oil. The results also indicate that long term damage due to recruitment loss could be greater than short term damage.