Two-pathway spatiotemporal representation learning for extreme water temperature prediction

Abstract

Accurate predictions of extreme water temperatures are criticalto understanding the variability of the marine environment and reducing marine disasters maximized by global warming. In this study, we propose a two-pathway framework with separated spatial and temporal encoders for accurate prediction of water temperature, especially extremely high water temperature, through effective spatiotemporal representation learning. The spatial and temporal encoder networks based on the Transformer’s self-attention mechanism performs the task of predicting the water temperature time series at the 16 coastal locations around the Korean Peninsula for the seven consecutive days ahead at daily intervals with various combinations of patch embedding methods, positional embedding for spatial features. Comparative experiments with conventional deep convolutional and recurrent networks are also conducted for comparison. By comparing and assessing these results, the proposed two-pathway framework can improve the predictability of extremely high coastal water temperature by better capturing spatiotemporal interrelationships and long-range dependencies from open ocean and regional sea, and further determines the optimal architectural details of self-attention-based spatial and temporal encoders. Furthermore, to examine the explainability of the proposed model and its consistency with domain knowledge, spatial and temporal attention maps are visualized and analyzed that represents weights for spatiotemporal input sequences that are more relevant to predict for future predictions.