Operational forecasting inundation extents using REOF analysis (FIER) over lower Mekong and its potential economic impact on agriculture
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Title
- Operational forecasting inundation extents using REOF analysis (FIER) over lower Mekong and its potential economic impact on agriculture
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Author(s)
- Chang, Chi-Hung; Lee, Hyongki; Do, Son K.; Du, Tien L.T.; Markert, Kel; Hossain, Faisal; Ahmad, Shahryar Khalique; Piman, Thanapon; Meechaiya, Chinaporn; Bui, Duong D.; Bolten, John D.; Hwang, Euiho; Jung, Hahn Chul
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Alternative Author(s)
- 정한철
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Publication Year
- 2023-04
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Abstract
- In the Lower Mekong River Basin floodplains, rice cultivation is highly crucial for regional and global food security. However, prolonged flooding can pose damage to rice cultivation and other socio-economic aspects. Yet, there is no rapid operational inundation forecasting system that can help decision-makers proactively mitigate flood damages. Here, we integrated the so-called Forecasting Inundation Extents using Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis (FIER) framework with an altimetry-based operational Mekong River level forecasting system and built an operational web application, FIER-Mekong, (https://fier-mekong.streamlit.app/) that generates daily skillful forecasted inundation extents (>70% of critical success index) and depths in about 3 and 30 s, respectively, with up to 18-day lead times. One of its applications, predicting flood-induced rice economic losses, is also presented. Had FIER-Mekong being adopted, we estimated that the rice damages, up to 87 and 53 million US dollars during the 2020 and 2021 harvest time, respectively, could have been avoided. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd
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ISSN
- 1364-8152
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URI
- https://sciwatch.kiost.ac.kr/handle/2020.kiost/43919
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DOI
- 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105643
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Bibliographic Citation
- Environmental Modelling and Software, v.162, 2023
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Publisher
- Elsevier BV
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Keywords
- Flood risk prediction; Mekong river basin; Operational inundation forecasting; SAR imagery
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Type
- Article
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Language
- English
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Document Type
- Article
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