Optimal initial perturbations for El Nino ensemble prediction with ensemble Kalman filter
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Title
- Optimal initial perturbations for El Nino ensemble prediction with ensemble Kalman filter
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Author(s)
- Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong; Kang, In-Sik
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Alternative Author(s)
- 국종성
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Publication Year
- 2009-12
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Abstract
- A method for selecting optimal initial perturbations is developed within the framework of an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Among the initial conditions generated by EnKF, ensemble members with fast growing perturbations are selected to optimize the ENSO seasonal forecast skills. Seasonal forecast experiments show that the forecast skills with the selected ensemble members are significantly improved compared with other ensemble members for up to 1-year lead forecasts. In addition, it is found that there is a strong relationship between the forecast skill improvements and flow-dependent instability. That is, correlation skills are significantly improved over the region where the predictable signal is relatively small (i.e. an inverse relationship). It is also shown that forecast skills are significantly improved during ENSO onset and decay phases, which are the most unpredictable periods among the ENSO events.
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ISSN
- 0930-7575
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URI
- https://sciwatch.kiost.ac.kr/handle/2020.kiost/4231
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DOI
- 10.1007/s00382-009-0582-z
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Bibliographic Citation
- CLIMATE DYNAMICS, v.33, no.7-8, pp.959 - 973, 2009
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Publisher
- SPRINGER
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Subject
- SINGULAR VECTOR ANALYSIS; HYBRID COUPLED MODEL; ATMOSPHERIC DATA ASSIMILATION; TROPICAL PACIFIC; WIND STRESS; OPTIMAL-GROWTH; BRED VECTORS; OCEAN MODEL; PREDICTABILITY; ENSO
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Keywords
- Ensemble Kalman filter; Seasonal prediction; Optimal initial perturbation; Ensemble prediction
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Type
- Article
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Language
- English
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Document Type
- Article
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