Changes in El Nio and La Nia teleconnections over North Pacific-America in the global warming simulations

Abstract

The change in the teleconnections of both El Nio and La Nia over the North Pacific and American regions due to a future greenhouse warming has been analyzed herein by means of diagnostics of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). Among the IPCC-AR4 CGCM simulations, the composites of the eight-member multimodel ensemble are analyzed. In most CGCMs, the tropical Pacific warming due to the increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere promotes the main convection centers in the equatorial Pacific associated with both El Nio and La Nia to the east. The eastward shift of the convection center causes a systematic eastward shift of not only El Nio but also La Nia teleconnection patterns over the North Pacific and America, which is demonstrated in the composite maps of 500 hPa circulation, surface temperature, and the precipitation against El Nio and La Nia, as observed in a comparison between the pre-industrial and CO2 doubling experiments. Thus, a systematic eastward migration of convection centers in the tropical Pacific associated with both El Nio and La Nia due to a future global warming commonly causes the eastward shift of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the Northern Hemisphere.