Empirical singular vector method for ensemble El Nino-Southern Oscillation prediction with a coupled general circulation model SCIE SCOPUS

Cited 6 time in WEB OF SCIENCE Cited 6 time in Scopus
Title
Empirical singular vector method for ensemble El Nino-Southern Oscillation prediction with a coupled general circulation model
Author(s)
Kug, Jong-Seong; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Lee, Eun-Jeong; Kang, In-Sik
Publication Year
2011-08-25
Abstract
Optimal initial perturbation is an important issue related to the improvement of the current seasonal climate prediction. In this study, we have applied the empirical singular vector method to ensemble El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction with the Seoul National University coupled general circulation model. It is found that from the empirical linear operator, the leading singular mode, which represents the fast growing error mode in the tropical Pacific, shows El Nino-like perturbation in the present coupled model. When the singular vector is used as an initial perturbation, the forecast skill of ENSO is significantly improved. Further, it is demonstrated that the predictions with the singular vector have a more reliable ensemble spread, suggesting a potential merit for a probabilistic forecast.
ISSN
0148-0227
URI
https://sciwatch.kiost.ac.kr/handle/2020.kiost/3827
DOI
10.1029/2010JC006851
Bibliographic Citation
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, v.116, 2011
Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
Subject
BRED VECTORS; INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; PREDICTABILITY; SYSTEM; ENSO; CLIMATE; PERTURBATIONS; SIMULATION; ERRORS; NCEP
Type
Article
Language
English
Document Type
Article
Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
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