Favorable versus unfavorable synoptic backgrounds for indirect precipitation events ahead of tropical cyclones approaching the Korean Peninsula: A comparison of two cases

Abstract

This study identifies favorable synoptic backgrounds for indirect precipitation events over the Korean Peninsula that occur well in advance of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall. Two TCs, i.e., Rammasun (2002) and Maemi (2003) that made landfall and produced heavy rainfall over the Peninsula are compared. Although both had a remarkably similar accumulated rainfall pattern over the peninsula, the temporal evolutions of hourly rainfall were different. Only Maemi had an indirect precipitation event in conjunction with a midlatitude trough to its north. The confluent flows at middle-to-upper levels were strengthened due to the increased pressure gradient between the midlatitude trough and the subtropical high, and the warm advection by the confluent flows also became stronger near the confluent zone. By contrast, Rammasun encountered the subtropical ridge while moving northward, which results in slow recurvature and reduction of the thermal gradient over the peninsula. The highly baroclinic synoptic backgrounds in the Maemi case lead to the midlevel frontogenesis. Budget analyses using the three-dimensional frontogenesis equation revealed that the horizontal deformation forcing had a primary role in generating the front. The front was associated with a thermally direct circulation that contributed to strong ascent and indirect precipitation over the peninsula well in advance of the landfall of Maemi. Moreover, the indirect precipitation could intensify due to the abundant low-level moisture supply to the frontal zone by the southerly wind on the east side of the TC.