설계파 산출과 연안방호대책: 지구기후변화에 대한 고려문제

Abstract

Two types of long term wave climate information are desired for many marine and coastal applications especially for the design of coastal structures: the design waves and operational waves. In conventional method of design criteria estimation, it is assumed that the climate is stationary and the statistics and extreme analysis using the long-term measured or hindcasted data are used in the statistical prediction for the future. However, such assumption of steady state is argued recently due to the global climate change. Since the availability of the field wave data for the waters around Korean peninsular is limited to cover climatically significant period of time to provide a reliable wave statistics, the wave climate information needs to be generated by means of long-term wave hindcasting using available meteorological data. Design wave height for the return period of 30, 50 and 100 years for 16 direction at each grid point of 18 km grid size for thewaters around Korean peninsular has been estimated by means of extreme wave analysis using the detailed wave simulation data for major typhoons that affected Korea since 1951 and the continuous hindcasted wave data since 1979. The methods of extreme statistical analysis to consider the recent extreme events like typhoon Maemi in 2003 was evaluated for more stable results of design wave height estimation for the return periods of 30-50 years, which is commonly applied in designing coastal structures like breakwater. The impact of global climate change in the estimation of design wave height for the return period of 30 and 50 years was analyzed and discussed.