미래 바람응력 변화에 대한 동해통과류의 수송량 변동반응과 기후변화에 따른 동해순환영향평가 전략

Abstract

Using a simple two dimensional global model, volume transport response of the East Sea Throughflow (EST) to a climate change scenario driven wind stress changes has been investigated. Transport change of the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS) driven by the GFDL CM 2.1 predicted wind stresses computed under the IPCC A1B scenario has been analyzed and compared with the solution forced by the present wind stresses. The annual mean transports in the various straits in the EAMS such as Luson St., Taiwan St. and even Kuroshio Current transport generally decrease. But it is interesting that the EST comes from the Korea St. and drains out of Tsugaru and Soya Straits has increased slightly. It is noteworthy that the volume transport of the major currents in the northwestern Pacific such as North Equatorial Current, Kuroshio Current and Mindanao Current generally decreased regardless of seasons. The volume transports in the EAMS, however, increase in winter and decrease in summer. Though the annual mean transport change trend is different from other straits’ transports, EST also shows that the winter transport increases while the summer transport decreases.The different seasonal response might be resulted from the seasonally different wind stress change in the northwestern Pacific, especially in the eastern outside of the East Sea. As the future or ultimate goal of this study is to develop a kind of method to assess the future climate impacts for the East Sea, a simple strategy which emphasize on the boundary condition acquirement for the regional circulation model has been suggested.