영광 해일 사례에 대한 기상조건의 모의: MM5, WRF 및 COAMPS 모델의 비교

Abstract

The highly qualified information for the sea level pressure and sea surface wind stress is required to predict the storm surge in the Korean Peninsula. The storm surge on 31 March 2007 at Yeong-Gwang was very unusual in the presence over the western coast and in the cause of the usual extratropical cyclone development. The wave height above 2m was unpredictable in the numerical weather prediction model. In the present study, we attempt to produce the reliable surface wind, and sea level pressure using the data assimilation technique of SST and assimilation cycle in the different models such as MM5, WRF, and COAMPS. The nested domains over the center of 35.0N and 129.0E are covered with 115*124 grids in the 27km mesh and 175*238 grids in the 9km mesh systems, respectively. We used the physics selected as the optimal parameterizations for the high wind condition. In addition, the Charnock’s relations and the coupling of the wave effect and roughness will be included. The model simulations in the field of sea level pressure show that the time and the magnitude for the maximum dropped surface pressure are characterized in the each model. In relation to the sea surface wind simulation, the arrival time and the positions for the maximum wind are compared and discussed. Finally we try to investigate the cause of the cyclone development and the predictability of the storm surge.