경주지역 가상지진에 의한 재해예측

Abstract

Due to the fast growing civilization and recent development in economics, societies vulnerable to natural hazards are increasing on the globe. Current expectation based on scientific results indicates such a trend will continue in the future. It is also our understanding that we may neither control natural hazards nor predict exact time and magnitude in the near future. Thus, hazard mitigation becomes a serious issue under such circumstances. As an effort to mitigate natural hazards, HAZUS-MH has been successfully applied beyond its original region. In this study, the earthquake damage of Gyeongju area located in southeast Korea from a scenario earthquake (M=6.7) has been estimated by using the deterministic method in HAZUS. First, the attenuation relation for the Western United States proposed by Sadigh et al.(1997) for the Site Class B has been selected to use the method in HAZUS after careful considerations of earthquake occurrence information and attenuation relationships between USA and Korea. Our preliminary estimates show 15.6% damage of houses, shelter needs for about three thousands residents, and 75 life losses in the study area for the scenario events occurring at 2 A.M. Approximately 96% of hospitals will be in normal operation in 24 hours from the proposed event. Losses related to houses will be more than 114 million US dollars. The loss estimation can provide essential information to the decision makers and emergency workers to expedite post-seismic measures and rescue missions. It helps us to be better prepared for any potential hazards in the future.