운용시스템에서의 해일고 예측과 추산 방법 개선

Abstract

Surges around Korea have been predicted and hindcasted by Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS). In KOOS, 3-day regional wind fields based on WRF model were imposed on a 2D tide model, and wind fields and tide were updated at every 12 hour-interval. This research summarized a reliable procedure for surge forecast and hindcast by focusing an event and surges in winter season. All results were compared with observed surges obtained with 1-minute interval. Studies on a surge event clearly showed that an accuracy of surge peak could be quite improved by using updated wind fields, however, sufficient tidal damping effect on surge peak should be considered when a peak occurred within 2 days for 3-day forecast. Also weighted average wind fields for first 12 hours were used in hindcast of surge, hindcasted surge showed a good agreement with observed surge peak.