Simulating ecosystem response to climate change, thermal waste discharge and reclamation in a highly industrialized bay

Abstract

Gwangyang Bay is located on the southern coast of Korea. It has experienced significant changes due to the development of large petroleum, chemical and iron industries and an international container port. Environmental impacts exerted on the bay’s ecosystem include a rise in water temperature, reclamation and dredging projects, pollutant release and a decline in river runoff. In this study a trophic flow model, EwE, is applied to assess how water temperature rise and reclamation perturbs the bay ecosystem in a quantitative manner. Sea temperature has increased steadily during 1965 to 2007 due both to global climate change and local anthropogenic inputs. The bay has thermal discharge of 1.5 M m3/d from 6 power plants with ΔT of 7°C. Thermal dispersion was simulated using 3D EFDC model, yielding distribution of temperature increase. In addition, reclamation has shrunk the bay’s area by 30% over the period of 1973 to 2004. The EwE model was run for 30 years, with sea temperature and reclamation, respectively, represented by phytoplankton productivity based on laboratory experiments of growth curve under a temperature range between 10 to 30°C, and a habitat area with shallow water dwelling organisms of bivalve and benthic algae. The model results were compared with and without the anthropogenic forcing.n the bay’s ecosystem include a rise in water temperature, reclamation and dredging projects, pollutant release and a decline in river runoff. In this study a trophic flow model, EwE, is applied to assess how water temperature rise and reclamation perturbs the bay ecosystem in a quantitative manner. Sea temperature has increased steadily during 1965 to 2007 due both to global climate change and local anthropogenic inputs. The bay has thermal discharge of 1.5 M m3/d from 6 power plants with ΔT of 7°C. Thermal dispersion was simulated using 3D EFDC model, yielding distribution of temperature increase. In addition, reclamation has shrunk the bay’s area by 30% over