기후변화에 따른 어획가능자원량 예측

Abstract

Climate changes such as global warming can affect ocean conditions, and thus affect the functioning mechanism of marine ecosystems and the distribution and abundance of fisheries resources. There has been an increasing trend in sea surface temperatures which has accelerated in last decades in Korean waters. The recent warming trend in Korean marine ecosystems is associated with the absence of cold-water species (e.g. walleye pollock) from Korean waters and an increase in abundance of warm-water species (e.g. bluefin tuna). This warming trend is also associated with changes in spatial distribution of some pelagic fish stocks such as chub mackerel and tunas in Korean waters. The impacts of the climate change were investigated by projecting distributionalranges of fish species in this study. Based on the Integrated Fisheries Risk Analysis Method for Ecosystems (IFRAME) approach, we projected expected changes in fishing ground of the Korean large purse seine fishery based on distributiona ranges of pelagic fish due to warming, forecasted expected exploitable biomass of target and bycatch species of the Korean large purse seine fishery by taking account of the effects of changes in ocean biogeochemistry such as ocean acidification and reduction in oxygen content and also changes in maximum layer depth (MLD) due to warming, and finally evaluated the variability and sensitivity of biomass estimatace temperatures which has accelerated in last decades in Korean waters. The recent warming trend in Korean marine ecosystems is associated with the absence of cold-water species (e.g. walleye pollock) from Korean waters and an increase in abundance of warm-water species (e.g. bluefin tuna). This warming trend is also associated with changes in spatial distribution of some pelagic fish stocks such as chub mackerel and tunas in Korean waters. The impacts of the climate change were investigated by projecting distributionalranges of fish species in this study. Based on the Integ