북서태평양의 태풍 예보에서 선행태풍과 근접태풍의 영향

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of preceding and adjacent typhoons on the track and intensity prediction of a typhoon in western North Pacific. For this, we developed a regional coupled model(WRF+ROMS) using a MPI(Message Passing Interface) II coupler. After determining optimal physical parameterizations of WRF based on sensitivity tests, we conducted two numerical experiments: one is to examine the sea surface cooling effect of a preceding typhoon, Ewiniar(0603), on the intensity prediction of typhoon Bilis(0604) and the other is to examine the bogussing effect for adjacent typhoons, Namtheun(1008) and Lionrock(1006), on the track prediction of Kompasu(1007). The results show that the intensity of Bilis(0604), passed over the region where a significant surface cooling occurred by the preceding typhoon Ewiniar (0603), was greatly reduced, compared to the experiment without considering the cooling effect, resulting in the improvement of intensity prediction. For the track prediction of Kompasu(1007), additional consideration of a bogussing scheme to adjacent typhoons reduced the track errors, mainly due to an improvement of initial condition. These results suggest that for not only the targeted typhoon but also the preceding and adjunct typhoons, accurate simulations of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are required for the improvement of typhoon prediction.