한반도 주변해 해양기후 전망을 위한 지역기후모형 개발

Abstract

A linear trend of sea surface temperature (SST) for the seas around Korea shows different spatial distribution (Min and Kim, 2006). Most of global climate models, however, cannot resolve well the regional features of historical and future ocean climate change for the seas around Korea due to their coarse resolution. It has motivated us to develop a regional climate model for the western North Pacific including the marginal seas. We conducted a historical simulation as a baseline and a future climate projection simulation using Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with a horizontal resolution of 1/12°. For the future climate projection, the model was forced with the time-averaged difference fields of 2081-2100 RCP4.5 run and 1981-2000 historical run simulated with CanESM2 for CMIP5 and the difference fields were superimposed on the present climate represented by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis data. This is known as the Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) method developed by Kimura and Kitoh (2007). The model simulated the historical time series of SST anomaly showing similar trends to the observed time series for the seas around Korea. It also showed a similar pattern in the spatial distribution of mixed layer depth to the climatology of de Boyer Montegut (2004) except for the northern East Sea. The volume transport along the Korea Strait simulated wcean climate change for the seas around Korea due to their coarse resolution. It has motivated us to develop a regional climate model for the western North Pacific including the marginal seas. We conducted a historical simulation as a baseline and a future climate projection simulation using Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with a horizontal resolution of 1/12°. For the future climate projection, the model was forced with the time-averaged difference fields of 2081-2100 RCP4.5 run and 1981-2000 historical run simulated with CanESM2 for CMIP5 and the difference fields were superimposed on the present climate represented by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis data. This is known as the Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) method developed by Kimura and Kitoh (2007). The model simulated the historical time series of SST anomaly showing similar trends to the observed time series for the seas around Korea. It also showed a similar pattern in the spatial distribution of mixed layer depth to the climatology of de Boyer Montegut (2004) except for the northern East Sea. The volume transport along the Korea Strait simulated w