역학규모축소법을 이용한 북태평양 기후변화전망

Abstract

This study presents preliminary results of regional climate model (RCM) development and its application to future climate change projection for the western North Pacific. The RCM consists of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) as an oceanic component and the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) as an atmospheric component. The ocean model has horizontal resolution of 1/12 degrees, while the atmospheric model, covering the East Asia region, has horizontal resolution of 50km. As a first step for future climate projection with the RCM, we used future climate changes by CanESM2 that well reproduces the East Asian monsoon. Both ocean and atmospheric RCM projections with a pseudo global warming method show some prominent features including ocean surface warming concentrated near the Kuroshio-Oyashio front, a dipole pattern in mixed layer depth change, and an opposite trend in precipitation changes between the southern and northern region over the Korean Peninsula. We will also present detailed regional patterns in future changes compared with global model projections.ceanic component and the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) as an atmospheric component. The ocean model has horizontal resolution of 1/12 degrees, while the atmospheric model, covering the East Asia region, has horizontal resolution of 50km. As a first step for future climate projection with the RCM, we used future climate changes by CanESM2 that well reproduces the East Asian monsoon. Both ocean and atmospheric RCM projections with a pseudo global warming method show some prominent features including ocean surface warming concentrated near the Kuroshio-Oyashio front, a dipole pattern in mixed layer depth change, and an opposite trend in precipitation changes between the southern and northern region over the Korean Peninsula. We will also present detailed regional patterns in future changes compared with global model projections.