North Pacific upper-ocean changes projected by CMIP5 models

Title
North Pacific upper-ocean changes projected by CMIP5 models
Author(s)
장찬주; 이동원; 이지현; 신호정; 김용선
KIOST Author(s)
Jang, Chan Joo(장찬주)
Publication Year
2014-10-28
Abstract
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) recently have recently released its fifth assessment report (AR5) which provides up-to-date scientific knowledge and socio-economic aspects of climate change, largely based on observational data and CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) global models. In this study, we aim to evaluate performance of global climate models (CMIP5 models) by comparing their historical run simulation with observed climatology, and to analyze their future climate change projection, focusing on North Pacific upper ocean changes that are associated with ecosystem response to global warming. Statistical analyses including Taylor diagram show that CMIP5 models have improved spatial patterns of PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) compared with those of CMIP3 models, mainly through better teleconnection representation between the tropics and mid-latitudes. Furthermore, the improvement is not only by decrease in number of models with poor performance, but also by better simulation of PDO spatial patterns. Sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth in the North Pacific Ocean, however, still appears to have significant biases, thus contributing to simulation biases in ecosystem including estimates of chlorophyll concentration. CMIP5 models project that upper ocean processes including mixed layer depth tend to change considerably in the North Pacific, as projected by CMIP3 models. Poata and CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) global models. In this study, we aim to evaluate performance of global climate models (CMIP5 models) by comparing their historical run simulation with observed climatology, and to analyze their future climate change projection, focusing on North Pacific upper ocean changes that are associated with ecosystem response to global warming. Statistical analyses including Taylor diagram show that CMIP5 models have improved spatial patterns of PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) compared with those of CMIP3 models, mainly through better teleconnection representation between the tropics and mid-latitudes. Furthermore, the improvement is not only by decrease in number of models with poor performance, but also by better simulation of PDO spatial patterns. Sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth in the North Pacific Ocean, however, still appears to have significant biases, thus contributing to simulation biases in ecosystem including estimates of chlorophyll concentration. CMIP5 models project that upper ocean processes including mixed layer depth tend to change considerably in the North Pacific, as projected by CMIP3 models. Po
URI
https://sciwatch.kiost.ac.kr/handle/2020.kiost/25893
Bibliographic Citation
PICES 2014 연례총회, pp.85, 2014
Publisher
PICES
Type
Conference
Language
English
Publisher
PICES
Related Researcher
Research Interests

upper ocean dynamics,regional climate modeling,ocean climate change,해양상층역학,지역기후모델링,해양기후변화

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