규모축소법을 이용한 동아시아 여름몬순 미래기후변화 전망: 물수지 분석

Abstract

Changes in summer precipitation over East Asia due to global warming are assessed by a dynamical downscaling method, so-called \"pseudo global warming (PGW) method\". The Weather Research and Forecast model is forced by the projected climate change simulated with a global climate model superimposed on the present climate state obtained from a reanalysis dataset. The projected future climate by the PGW method shows an increase in precipitation along the Meiyu-Baiu front and a southern part of the Korean Peninsula, whereas a decrease in precipitation is shown over the Changma front stretching from the central China to the central Korean Peninsula. A column-integrated moisture budget analysis indicates that the precipitation increase in the Southern China region is primarily attributed to the increase in moisture convergence due to the local surface evaporation rather than by the horizontal advection of moisture . Meanwhile, the precipitation decrease in Central China can be mostly explained by the weakening of horizontal moisture advection. This regional contrast especially over the mainland of China appears to originate from the changes in wind around the Yantz river which plays a role as a moisture source suggesting the importance of regional effects on climate change.