한반도 주변해 지역기후접합모형(RCCM) 미래전망 시범 제시

Abstract

In spite of an increasing demand on the detailed information on climate change, future climate projections for the seas around Korea have been conducted very limitedly. Even for the regional climate projections, they used only a regional ocean model forced by a global model projection result for the atmosphere and thus could not properly simulate the air-sea interactions on a high resolution. The goal of this study is to present a future climate simulated using a regional climate coupled model (RCCM) so that the simulation includes the high-resolution air-sea interaction effects. At this moment, this study presents preliminary results on a future climate change projection using a RCCM for the seas around Korea. The RCCM consists of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) as an oceanic component and the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) as an atmospheric component. As the initial and lateral boundary conditions we used ECMWF reanalysis-interim data for the present climate and the CMIP5 output produced by CanESM2 under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario for a future climate change. The results for the future climate projection show some prominent features such as a considerable surface warming in the East Sea and a stronger warming in summer that in winter. We also found that a two-way coupling on a regional scale can reduce an overestimation in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension region resulted from a regional ocean-only model, especially for an inter-annual variability. These results imply that the air-sea interaction on a high resolution has a considerable effect on climate simulations and thus a coupled modeling for a future climate projection is necessary on a regional scale.