우리나라 전례 없는 기후 시기의 선형 전망

Title
우리나라 전례 없는 기후 시기의 선형 전망
Alternative Title
Linear projection of timing of unprecedented climate in Korea
Author(s)
신호정; 장찬주; 정일웅
KIOST Author(s)
Jang, Chan Joo(장찬주)
Publication Year
2016-12-01
Abstract
This year, we have had abnormal weather events worldwide and are expecting a highest temperature record since the emergence of human life on Earth. If such extreme climate events occur more frequently and become normal in the future, we will have an unprecedented climate. This study intends to answer to when we will have an unprecedentedly warm climate, focusing more on the regional characteristics of the timing of unprecedented climate. In this study, we used an in-situ observational data for annual-mean surface air temperature in Korea from 1973 to 2015 and estimated a timing of unprecedented climate using a linear regression method. Based on our results, an unprecedented climate in Korea is projected to come by 2043 in Cheongju at first and by 2289 in Mokpo at last. This 246-year gap in the timing indicates that a regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate is considerably large in Korea. In spite of a high sensitivity of the linear estimation to a data period and resolution, our findings on the large regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate can give an insight into making policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation, not only to the central government but also to provincial governments.l have an unprecedented climate. This study intends to answer to when we will have an unprecedentedly warm climate, focusing more on the regional characteristics of the timing of unprecedented climate. In this study, we used an in-situ observational data for annual-mean surface air temperature in Korea from 1973 to 2015 and estimated a timing of unprecedented climate using a linear regression method. Based on our results, an unprecedented climate in Korea is projected to come by 2043 in Cheongju at first and by 2289 in Mokpo at last. This 246-year gap in the timing indicates that a regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate is considerably large in Korea. In spite of a high sensitivity of the linear estimation to a data period and resolution, our findings on the large regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate can give an insight into making policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation, not only to the central government but also to provincial governments.
URI
https://sciwatch.kiost.ac.kr/handle/2020.kiost/24271
Bibliographic Citation
한국기후변화학회 2016년 하반기 학술대회, pp.11, 2016
Publisher
한국기후변화학회
Type
Conference
Language
Korean
Publisher
한국기후변화학회
Related Researcher
Research Interests

upper ocean dynamics,regional climate modeling,ocean climate change,해양상층역학,지역기후모델링,해양기후변화

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