Forecast simulation of rapidly-intensified typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific region

Abstract

The real-time typhoon predictions in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) are being distributed by various agencies (forexample, KMA, JMA, JTWC, NMC, CWB, HKO and PAGASA). Currently the movement of the typhoon can bepredicted with an error of less than 100 km in 48 hours, however it is difficult to the predict of the intensity ofthe typhoon especially the Rapidly Intensified (RI) Typhoons. The mean occurrence of RI typhoon amounts to 5.4times a year during 39 years (1977-2015), occupying 21% of typhoons in NWP. Especially the RI typhoon in theEddy-Rich Northwest Pacific (ER-NWP) occurred 1.8 times a year, covering 29% of typhoons in ER-NWP.A RI typhoon, NEPARTAK (T201601), occurred in July 2016. It was formed in Caroline Islands and moved northwest,straightly heading for Taiwan. However, at the beginning stage many forecasting agencies predicts as moveto the Yellow Sea. The accuracy of prediction data of the Typhoon NEPARTAK (T201601) from KMA, JMA andJTWC was compared with the adjusted best-track data from Digital-Typhoon (JMA-RSMC). The sequential predictiondata are summarized with 6-hour interval from 3th to 10th July 2016.The JMA prediction of the typhoontrack and the JTWC predictions of the maximum wind speed were found to be best.The numerical simulations using WRF model forced with NCEP GFS prediction data and microwave SST is compared.The simulations using one domain (D1), two domains (D2) usss than 100 km in 48 hours, however it is difficult to the predict of the intensity ofthe typhoon especially the Rapidly Intensified (RI) Typhoons. The mean occurrence of RI typhoon amounts to 5.4times a year during 39 years (1977-2015), occupying 21% of typhoons in NWP. Especially the RI typhoon in theEddy-Rich Northwest Pacific (ER-NWP) occurred 1.8 times a year, covering 29% of typhoons in ER-NWP.A RI typhoon, NEPARTAK (T201601), occurred in July 2016. It was formed in Caroline Islands and moved northwest,straightly heading for Taiwan. However, at the beginning stage many forecasting agencies predicts as moveto the Yellow Sea. The accuracy of prediction data of the Typhoon NEPARTAK (T201601) from KMA, JMA andJTWC was compared with the adjusted best-track data from Digital-Typhoon (JMA-RSMC). The sequential predictiondata are summarized with 6-hour interval from 3th to 10th July 2016.The JMA prediction of the typhoontrack and the JTWC predictions of the maximum wind speed were found to be best.The numerical simulations using WRF model forced with NCEP GFS prediction data and microwave SST is compared.The simulations using one domain (D1), two domains (D2) us