북서태평양 중기해양환경예측모형 개발

Abstract

Here we report on a newly developed medium range ocean prediction model for the Northwest Pacific that includes the seas around Korea. A three-month reforecast simulation was conducted to validate the model against the NCEP CFSv2 data, which is also used as an atmospheric forcing and open boundary condition. We analyzed the last month (March of 2016) of the simulation output and verified that the model successfully re-forecasted the temperature anomaly distribution of sea water from the surface to 500 m depth. As observed, the model showed a positive anomaly compared to the normal year averaged for 1982-2010, especially in the regions with warm currents such as Kuroshio and Tsushima, East Korea Warm Current, and Yellow Sea. Our results suggest that the developed medium range ocean prediction model can be used to predict the marine environment at least three month in advance. Our future plan is to couple the ocean prediction model with a biological model and to apply the model to a prediction of fishery resources on a medium range.h is also used as an atmospheric forcing and open boundary condition. We analyzed the last month (March of 2016) of the simulation output and verified that the model successfully re-forecasted the temperature anomaly distribution of sea water from the surface to 500 m depth. As observed, the model showed a positive anomaly compared to the normal year averaged for 1982-2010, especially in the regions with warm currents such as Kuroshio and Tsushima, East Korea Warm Current, and Yellow Sea. Our results suggest that the developed medium range ocean prediction model can be used to predict the marine environment at least three month in advance. Our future plan is to couple the ocean prediction model with a biological model and to apply the model to a prediction of fishery resources on a medium range.