북서태평양와류해역에서 급강화태풍예측

DC Field Value Language
dc.contributor.author 김경옥 -
dc.contributor.author 강석구 -
dc.contributor.author 김한나 -
dc.contributor.author 정경태 -
dc.date.accessioned 2020-07-15T12:32:23Z -
dc.date.available 2020-07-15T12:32:23Z -
dc.date.created 2020-02-11 -
dc.date.issued 2018-05-24 -
dc.identifier.uri https://sciwatch.kiost.ac.kr/handle/2020.kiost/23332 -
dc.description.abstract The real-time typhoon predictions in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) are being distributed by various agencies (for example, KMA, JMA, JTWC, NMC, CWB, HKO and PAGASA). Currently the movement of the typhoon can be predicted with an error of less than 100 km in 48 hours, however it is difficult to the predict of the intensity of the typhoon especially the Rapidly Intensified (RI) Typhoons. The mean occurrence of RI typhoon amounts to 5.4 times a year during 39 years (1977-2015), occupying 21% of typhoons in NWP. Especially the RI typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific (ER-NWP) occurred 1.8 times a year, covering 29% of typhoons in ER-NWP. A RI typhoon, NEPARTAK (T201601), occurred in July 2016. At the beginning stage many forecasting agencies predicts as move to the Yellow Sea, but straightly heading for Taiwan. The accuracy of prediction data of the T201601 from KMA, JMA and JTWC was compared with the adjusted best-track data from JMA. The sequential prediction data are summarized with 6-hour interval from 3th to 10th July 2016.The JMA prediction of the typhoon track and the JTWC predictions of the maximum wind speed were found to be best. The numerical simulations using WRF model forced with NCEP GFS prediction data and microwave SST is compared. The simulations using one domain (D1), two domains (D2) using a moving nest scheme, and with or without the spectral nudging (-SN) are compared. Comparison of the errors than 100 km in 48 hours, however it is difficult to the predict of the intensity of the typhoon especially the Rapidly Intensified (RI) Typhoons. The mean occurrence of RI typhoon amounts to 5.4 times a year during 39 years (1977-2015), occupying 21% of typhoons in NWP. Especially the RI typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific (ER-NWP) occurred 1.8 times a year, covering 29% of typhoons in ER-NWP. A RI typhoon, NEPARTAK (T201601), occurred in July 2016. At the beginning stage many forecasting agencies predicts as move to the Yellow Sea, but straightly heading for Taiwan. The accuracy of prediction data of the T201601 from KMA, JMA and JTWC was compared with the adjusted best-track data from JMA. The sequential prediction data are summarized with 6-hour interval from 3th to 10th July 2016.The JMA prediction of the typhoon track and the JTWC predictions of the maximum wind speed were found to be best. The numerical simulations using WRF model forced with NCEP GFS prediction data and microwave SST is compared. The simulations using one domain (D1), two domains (D2) using a moving nest scheme, and with or without the spectral nudging (-SN) are compared. Comparison of the errors -
dc.description.uri 2 -
dc.language Korean -
dc.publisher 한국지구과학연합회 -
dc.relation.isPartOf 한국지구과학연합회 -
dc.title 북서태평양와류해역에서 급강화태풍예측 -
dc.title.alternative Forecast of Rapidly-Intensified Typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific -
dc.type Conference -
dc.citation.conferencePlace KO -
dc.citation.endPage 1 -
dc.citation.startPage 1 -
dc.citation.title 한국지구과학연합회 -
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation 한국지구과학연합회, pp.1 -
dc.description.journalClass 2 -
Appears in Collections:
Marine Environmental & Climate Research Division > Ocean Circulation Research Center > 2. Conference Papers
Marine Environmental & Climate Research Division > Marine Environmental Research Center > 2. Conference Papers
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