Forecast of Rapidly-Intensified Typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific

Title
Forecast of Rapidly-Intensified Typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific
Author(s)
김경옥; 강석구; 김한나; 정경태
KIOST Author(s)
Kim, Kyeong Ok(김경옥)
Publication Year
2018-06-20
Abstract
The real-time typhoon predictions in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) are being distributed by various agencies (for example, KMA, JMA, JTWC, NMC, CWB, HKO and PAGASA). Currently the movement of the typhoon can be predicted with an error of less than 100 km in 48 hours, however it is difficult to the predict of the intensity of the typhoon especially the Rapidly Intensified (RI) Typhoons. The mean occurrence of RI typhoon amounts to 5.4 times a year during 39 years (1977-2015), occupying 21% of typhoons in NWP. Especially the RI typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific (ER-NWP) occurred 1.8 times a year, covering 29% of typhoons in ER-NWP.
A RI typhoon, NEPARTAK (T201601), occurred in July 2016. At the beginning stage many forecasting agencies predicts as move to the Yellow Sea, but straightly heading for Taiwan. The accuracy of prediction data of the T201601 from KMA, JMA and JTWC was compared with the adjusted best-track data from JMA. The sequential prediction data are summarized with 6-hour interval from 3th to 10th July 2016.The JMA prediction of the typhoon track and the JTWC predictions of the maximum wind speed were found to be best.
The numerical simulations using WRF model forced with NCEP GFS prediction data and microwave SST is compared. The simulations using one domain (D1), two domains (D2) using a moving nest scheme, and with or without the spectral nudging (-SN) are compared. Comparison of the errors than 100 km in 48 hours, however it is difficult to the predict of the intensity of the typhoon especially the Rapidly Intensified (RI) Typhoons. The mean occurrence of RI typhoon amounts to 5.4 times a year during 39 years (1977-2015), occupying 21% of typhoons in NWP. Especially the RI typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific (ER-NWP) occurred 1.8 times a year, covering 29% of typhoons in ER-NWP.
A RI typhoon, NEPARTAK (T201601), occurred in July 2016. At the beginning stage many forecasting agencies predicts as move to the Yellow Sea, but straightly heading for Taiwan. The accuracy of prediction data of the T201601 from KMA, JMA and JTWC was compared with the adjusted best-track data from JMA. The sequential prediction data are summarized with 6-hour interval from 3th to 10th July 2016.The JMA prediction of the typhoon track and the JTWC predictions of the maximum wind speed were found to be best.
The numerical simulations using WRF model forced with NCEP GFS prediction data and microwave SST is compared. The simulations using one domain (D1), two domains (D2) using a moving nest scheme, and with or without the spectral nudging (-SN) are compared. Comparison of the errors
URI
https://sciwatch.kiost.ac.kr/handle/2020.kiost/23224
Bibliographic Citation
IWSS, pp.P-1-29, 2018
Publisher
IWSS
Type
Conference
Language
English
Publisher
IWSS
Related Researcher
Research Interests

Coastal Engineering,Marine Environment Model,Coastal Disaster Model,해안공학,해양환경모델링,해안재해모델

Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.

qrcode

Items in ScienceWatch@KIOST are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

Browse