Effects of ocean warming on potential habitat distribution of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonica) in the seas around Korea: A maximum entropy approach

Abstract

Ocean warming is affecting marine fish and these effects will continue in the future. Korean waters are one of the most rapid warming areas. In Korea, Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonica) is commercially and biologically important small pelagic fish species sensitive to environmental changes. Thus, we try to investigate the effects of global warming on potential changes in habitat distribution of anchovy in the future by using a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The model was constructed based on seawater temperature at 10m depth, mixed layer depth (MLD), and sea surface height (SSH) in August 1983-2015, and predict spatial distribution in 2030, 2060, and 2090 by using the seawater temperature projections from the three climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) in the NorESM1-M with keeping other environmental variables (SSH and MLD). Coastal regions from the eastern South Sea to the East Sea were within the range of optimal spawning temperature of anchovy during 1983-2015. However, in 2090, it moved to the north and located near the Vladivostok in Russia. Also, while the relatively high habitat suitability indices were limited to the South Sea in 1983-2015, it was extended prominent to the north in all the three scenarios in the future. We will apply several other CMIP5 models and consider primary production as an environmental factor.