파랑후측에서 나타난 동해 유의파고의 선형추세

Abstract

Extreme significant wave height (SWH) influences the coastal environment such as coastal erosion and damage to coastal structures. In this study, to investigate a long-term trend of SWH in the East Sea, a wave hindcast experiment for the East Sea was conducted by using the SWAN wave model forced with ECMWF reanalysis wind data during 40 years (1979~2018). Trends of SWH in the East Sea appear to significantly change spatially. For example, in August when typhoons pass most frequently through the East Sea, the monthly-mean SWH shows an increasing trend in the southern basin, while the SWH shows a decreasing trend in northern basin. The 99th percentile shows a different spatial pattern in the trend: an increase in the northwestern area and a decrease in the southeastern area. On the other hand, in December when strong northwesterly winds are dominant, both monthly-mean and 99th percentile SWH show an increasing trend in most of the East Sea. Especially, there is a noticeable increasing trend in the southeastern East Sea. Our results suggest that the long-term trends of the SWH in the East Sea significantly vary depending on seasons and locations.