Optimizing Typhoon Intensity Prediction Models: Pilot Study adopting Sea Spray-mediated Flux

Abstract

This study investigates impacts of sea spray-mediated latent heat in forecasts of rapidly intensifying typhoons. Sea spray-mediated latent heat, expected to improve the forecast performance of typhoon intensification, must evaluate complex wind-wave interactions. To simply incorporate its effects, a regression equation was developed using YJ22 algorithm of Lan et al. (2022). The experiments with sea spray effect accurately predicted the tracks and intensities of category 5 typhoons, but overestimated the intensities and deviated from actual tracks for category 3 typhoons. Our results suggest that including spray- induced latent heat flux can notably improve the forecast precision of category 5 RI typhoons.