북서태평양 중기해양예측모형(OMIDAS) 해면수온 예측성능: 계절적인 차이 SCOPUS KCI

Title
북서태평양 중기해양예측모형(OMIDAS) 해면수온 예측성능: 계절적인 차이
Alternative Title
Predictability of Sea Surface Temperature in the Northwestern Pacific Simulated by an Ocean Mid-Range Prediction System (OMIDAS): Seasonal Difference
Author(s)
정희석; 김용선; 신호정; 장찬주
KIOST Author(s)
Jung, Hee Seok(정희석)Kim, Yong Sun(김용선)Jang, Chan Joo(장찬주)
Alternative Author(s)
정희석; 김용선; 장찬주
Publication Year
2021-06
Abstract
Changes in a marine environment have a broad socioeconomic implication on fisheries and their relevant industries so that there has been a growing demand for the medium-range (months to years) prediction of the marine environment Using a medium-range ocean prediction model (Ocean Mid-range prediction System, OMIDAS) for the northwest Pacific, this study attempted to assess seasonal difference in the mid-range predictability of the sea surface temperature (SST), focusing on the Korea seas characterized as a complex marine system. A three-month re-forecast experiment was conducted for each of the four seasons in 2016 starting from January, forced with Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) forecast data. The assessment using relative root-mean-square-error was taken for the last month SST of each experiment. Compared to the CFSv2, the OMIDAS revealed a better prediction skill for the Korea seas SST, particularly in the Yellow sea mainly due to a more realistic representation of the topography and current systems. Seasonally, the OMIDAS showed better predictability in the warm seasons (spring and summer) than in the cold seasons (fall and winter), suggesting seasonal dependency in predictability of the Korea seas. In addition, the mid-range predictability for the Korea seas significantly varies depending on regions: the predictability was higher in the East Sea than in the Yellow Sea. The improvement in the seasonal predictability for the Korea seas by OMIDAS highlights the importance of a regional ocean modeling system for a medium-range marine prediction.
ISSN
1598-141X
URI
https://sciwatch.kiost.ac.kr/handle/2020.kiost/42212
DOI
10.4217/OPR.2021.43.2.053
Bibliographic Citation
Ocean and Polar Research, v.43, no.2, pp.53 - 63, 2021
Publisher
Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute
Keywords
medium-range ocean prediction; SST prediction; re-forecast; regional ocean model; seasonal predictability
Type
Article
Language
Korean
Publisher
Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute
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