Decision-Tree-Based Classification of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones in the Tropical Western North Pacific
SCIE
SCOPUS
Cited 6 time in
WEB OF SCIENCE
Cited 8 time in
Scopus
-
Title
- Decision-Tree-Based Classification of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones in the Tropical Western North Pacific
-
Author(s)
- Kim, Sunghun; Moon, Il-Ju; Won, Seong-Hee; Kang, Hyoun-Woo; Kang, Sok Kuh
- KIOST Author(s)
- Kim, Sunghun(김성훈); Kang, Hyoun Woo(강현우)
-
Alternative Author(s)
- 김성훈; 강현우; 강석구
-
Publication Year
- 2021-06
-
Abstract
- The National Typhoon Center of the Korea Meteorological Administration developed a statistical-dynamical typhoon intensity prediction model for the western North Pacific, the CSTIPS-DAT, using a track-pattern clustering technique. The model led to significant improvements in the prediction of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, relatively large errors have been found in a cluster located in the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP), mainly because of the large predictand variance. In this study, a decision-tree algorithm was employed to reduce the predictand variance for TCs in the TWNP. The tree predicts the likelihood of a TC reaching a maximum lifetime intensity greater than 70 knots at its genesis. The developed four rules suggest that the pre-existing ocean thermal structures along the track and the latitude of a TC's position play significant roles in the determination of its intensity. The developed decision-tree classification exhibited 90.0% and 80.5% accuracy in the training and test periods, respectively. These results suggest that intensity prediction with the CSTIPS-DAT can be further improved by developing independent statistical models for TC groups classified by the present algorithm.
-
ISSN
- 2073-4433
-
URI
- https://sciwatch.kiost.ac.kr/handle/2020.kiost/41484
-
DOI
- 10.3390/atmos12070802
-
Bibliographic Citation
- ATMOSPHERE, v.12, no.7, 2021
-
Publisher
- MDPI
-
Subject
- RAPID INTENSIFICATION; POTENTIAL INTENSITY; INDEX; ATLANTIC; TRACK
-
Keywords
- tropical cyclone; depth-averaged temperature; decision tree; lifetime maximum intensity
-
Type
- Article
-
Language
- English
-
Document Type
- Article
- Files in This Item:
-
There are no files associated with this item.
Items in ScienceWatch@KIOST are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.