Decision-Tree-Based Classification of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones in the Tropical Western North Pacific SCIE SCOPUS

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Title
Decision-Tree-Based Classification of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones in the Tropical Western North Pacific
Author(s)
Kim, Sunghun; Moon, Il-Ju; Won, Seong-Hee; Kang, Hyoun-Woo; Kang, Sok Kuh
KIOST Author(s)
Kim, Sung Hun(김성훈)Kang, Hyoun Woo(강현우)
Alternative Author(s)
김성훈; 강현우; 강석구
Publication Year
2021-06
Abstract
The National Typhoon Center of the Korea Meteorological Administration developed a statistical-dynamical typhoon intensity prediction model for the western North Pacific, the CSTIPS-DAT, using a track-pattern clustering technique. The model led to significant improvements in the prediction of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, relatively large errors have been found in a cluster located in the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP), mainly because of the large predictand variance. In this study, a decision-tree algorithm was employed to reduce the predictand variance for TCs in the TWNP. The tree predicts the likelihood of a TC reaching a maximum lifetime intensity greater than 70 knots at its genesis. The developed four rules suggest that the pre-existing ocean thermal structures along the track and the latitude of a TC's position play significant roles in the determination of its intensity. The developed decision-tree classification exhibited 90.0% and 80.5% accuracy in the training and test periods, respectively. These results suggest that intensity prediction with the CSTIPS-DAT can be further improved by developing independent statistical models for TC groups classified by the present algorithm.
ISSN
2073-4433
URI
https://sciwatch.kiost.ac.kr/handle/2020.kiost/41484
DOI
10.3390/atmos12070802
Bibliographic Citation
ATMOSPHERE, v.12, no.7, 2021
Publisher
MDPI
Subject
RAPID INTENSIFICATION; POTENTIAL INTENSITY; INDEX; ATLANTIC; TRACK
Keywords
tropical cyclone; depth-averaged temperature; decision tree; lifetime maximum intensity
Type
Article
Language
English
Document Type
Article
Publisher
MDPI
Related Researcher
Research Interests

Marine System Modeling,Ocean Climate,Ocean Circulation,해양시스템모델링,해양 기후,해양 순환

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