ENSO nonlinearity in a warming climate

Abstract

The El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known as the strongest natural inter-annual climate signal, having widespread consequences on the global weather, climate, ecology and even on societies. Understanding ENSO variations in a changing climate is therefore of primordial interest to both the climate community and policy makers. In this study, we focus on the change in ENSO nonlinearity due to climate change. We first analysed high statistical moments of observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) timeseries of the tropical Pacific based on the measurement of the tails of their Probability Density Function (PDF). This allows defining relevant metrics for the change in nonlinearity observed over the last century. Based on these metrics, a zonal "see-saw" (oscillation) in nonlinearity patterns is highlighted that is associated with the change in El Nio characteristics observed in recent years. Taking advantage of the IPCC database and the different projection scenarios, it is showed that changes in El Nio statistics (or "flavour") from a present-day climate to a warmer climate are associated with a significant change in nonlinearity patterns. In particular, in the twentieth century climate, the "conventional" eastern Pacific El Nio relates more to changes in nonlinearity than to changes in mean state whereas the central Pacific El Nio (or Modoki El Nio) is more sensitive to changes in mean state than to changes in nonlinearity. An opposite behaviour is found in a warmer climate, namely the decreasing nonlinearity in the eastern Pacific tends to make El Nio less frequent but more sensitive to mean state, whereas the increasing nonlinearity in the west tends to trigger Central Pacific El Nio more frequently. This suggests that the change in ENSO statistics due to climate change might result from changes in the zonal contrast of nonlinearity characteristics across the tropical Pacific.