중기 해양환경 예측모형(OMIDAS)를 이용한 북서태평양 해면수온 중기예측 성능 평가

Abstract

Changes in a marine environment have a broad socioeconomic implication on fisheries and their relevant industries so that there has been a growing demand for the prediction of the marine environment for a few months to years. For this medium-range prediction, detailed information on a regional scale is imperative. Using a recently developed medium-range marine prediction model, Ocean Mid-range prediction System (OMIDAS) for the northwest Pacific, this study attempted to assess seasonal characteristics of the mid-range predictability of the sea surface temperature (SST), focusing on the Korean waters characterized as a complex marine system. We have conducted a three-month re-forecast experiment for each of the four seasons in 2016 starting from January, by using the atmospheric forcing and open boundary condition obtained from Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) forecast data. Assessment using relative root-mean-square error was taken for the last month SST of each experiment. Compared to the CFSv2, the OMIDAS revealed a better prediction skill for the Northwest Pacific SST, particularly in the Korean waters mainly due to a more realistic representation of topography and current systems. Seasonally, the OMIDAS showed better predictability in warm seasons than in cold seasons, suggesting seasonal dependency of ocean mid-range predictability in Korean waters. In addition, the mid-range predictability by the OMIDAS for the Korean waters significantly varies depending on regions: the predictability was higher in the East Sea than in the Yellow Sea. The overall improvement in the seasonal predictability for the Korean waters by OMIDAS highlights the importance of a regional ocean modeling system for a medium-range marine prediction.