Indian Ocean Feedback to the ENSO Transition in a Multimodel Ensemble

Abstract

Observational studies hypothesized that Indian Ocean (IO) feedback plays a role in leading to a fast transition of El Nino. When El Nino accompanies IO warming, IO warming induces the equatorial easterlies over the western Pacific (WP), leading to a rapid termination of El Nino via an oceanic adjust process. In this study, this IO feedback is reinvestigated using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) coupled GCM simulations. It is found that most of the climate models mimic this IO feedback reasonably, supporting the observational hypothesis. However, most climate models tend to underestimate the strength of the IO feedback, which means the phase transition of ENSO due to the IO feedback is less effective than the observed one. Furthermore, there is great intermodel diversity in simulating the strength of the IO feedback. It is shown that the strength of the IO feedback is related to the precipitation responses to El Nino and IO SST forcings over the warm-pool regions. Moreover, the authors suggest that the distribution of climatological precipitation is one important component in controlling the strength of the IO feedback.