폭풍해일의 단기 및 장기 예측

Abstract

One of major cause of the damage in the coastal area due to typhoon is the extreme water level rise. The water level rise is composed of three components: astronomical tide, storm surge and dynamic wave set-up. To be able to predict the total water level rise properly, each component need to be measured, analyzed and modeled. In 1997, lower part of the western coastal area of Korea had been flooded due to thecombined effects of spring tide and typhoon. It had been pointed out that the water level prediction system is to be established through cooperation between the National Oceanographic Research Institute and the Korea Meteorological Administration. However, not much improvement had been made in typhoon water level prediction as we see the case of typhoon Maemi in 2003 which caused a severe damage in the south eastern area of Korea. The occurrence of severe typhoon seems to be more frequent these days. How to reduce the coastal hazard caused by typhoon generated storm surge is a big issue now. Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute (KORDI) carried out a study on this with the request of Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries (MOMAF) to prepare a basic strategies and actions for the establishment of operational forecasting services for storm surges associated with typhoons.To reduce coastal hazard due to typhoon storm surge, it is necessary to establish the storm surge monitoring system, storm surge nowcast and short-term prediction system and long-term statistical estimation of extreme water level rise. The details on the establishment of water level prediction system in Korea will be introduced at the Workshop.