시나리오 지진을 이용한 한국에서의 재해 예측: HAZUS적용사례

Abstract

Recent studies of historical earthquakes in the Korean Peninsula revealed numerous severe events occurred during its history, although the seismicity in the region is low to moderate during the 20th century. GIS based multi-hazard loss estimation system, HAZUS-MH, has been extended and applied to provide critical information after a few postulated scenario earthquakes in the southeastern Korean Peninsula. Study area includes multiple metropolitan areas and suburban areas with more than 12 million people and critical infrastructures. The study area has experienced more earthquakes than any other part of the country during the modern instrumental seismic monitoring period. Shake maps of a few scenario earthquakes for pilot tests are prepared based on historic earthquake catalogs. The results remind us vulnerability of human life and critical structures to earthquakes in the country. While the study presents only preliminary results, further adaptation of parameters and establishment of multi-disciplinary database is required to provide a basis for decisions concerning preparedness and disaster response planning and to simulate and assist planning for mitigation to reduce potential future losses. It is also addressed that problems and potential solutions on the global application of HAZUS and data assembling in Korea.