기후변화에 따른 바람장 변화에 반응하는 동아시아 지역해 수송량 변동에 관한 사전 연구

Abstract

Barotropic responses of the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS) to a kind of future wind stresses which is produced by a climate change scenario (IPCC A1B) have been investigated using a simple 2-dimensional variable grid global ocean model. Two kinds of wind stresses produced by the GFDL CM 2.1 model used to force the 2-D ocean model. One is the present state wind stresses averaged in the period of 1980 – 2000 and the other is the A1B scenario result averaged during the year from 2080 to 2100. The volume transports in the EAMS major straits calculated by both solutions have been compared with each other and the possible cause on this change has been investigated. The annual mean transports in the various straits in the EAMS such as Luson and Taiwan Straits, and even Kuroshio Current transport generally decrease. But it is interesting that the East Sea Throughflow (EST) comes from the Korea Strait and drains out of Tsugaru and Soya Straits has increased slightly. It is noteworthy that the seasonal response of the transport change to the future wind stresses is quite contrary. Generally, the volume transports in the EAMS increase in winter and decrease in summer. In the mean time, the Kuroshio Current transport calculated at the southern section of Japan decreases regardless of seasons. Though the annual mean transport change is different from that of other straits, EST also shows that the winter transport increases while the summer transport decreases. A further study plan to extend the experiment above and application of the future EST transport to the East Sea circulation model to assess the regional climate change impacts are introduced.