전지구 기후모델을 이용한 동해 열균형에 대한 지구온난화 효과 연구

Abstract

Observations show that the East/Japan Sea (EJS) has undergone drastic changes in past few decades such as a warming of upper and deep waters, and a decrease in dissolved oxygen contents in deep waters. No postulation, however, has been attempted concerning the future oceanographic states of the EJS as the climate continues to change. Motivated by this gap, we analyzed results from a high-resolution global coupled climate model (MIROC3.2-hires, T106L56AGCM + 0.28 0.16 L48 OGCM) to examine climate change projections over the EJS. In this study, results from the present climate simulation (20C-run) are compared with those from the future projection (IPCC A1B scenario) to investigate the response of the EJS to global warming. The final 30-year mean sea surface temperature averaged over the entire EJS in the scenario run increases by 4 ℃ as compared to that in the 20C-run. The surface warming is more pronounced in the northern EJS than in the southern part. This warming is mainly caused by the reduced sensible heat loss from EJS to atmosphere. Weakening winter monsoon results in a decrease in the sensible heat loss by about 20% in winter over the EJS. Model results suggest that warming in the EJS is mainly related to changes in atmospheric condition over the sea rather than changes in the horizontal heat transport through the straits.