한반도의 태풍해일 예측 예비운용시스템

Abstract

Many studies have warned the possible serious coastal disasters due to tropical cyclones, which will be more powerful by sea level rise and sea surface temperature increase caused by the global warming. It is quite urgent issue to prevent and to mitigate such natural hazards in the coastal areas around world.In this study we introduced our recent efforts to develop a pre-operational fine-mesh storm surge prediction system in Korean Peninsula. This system consisted of three parts: 1) the typhoon wind models which provided the wind and pressure fields to 2) the storm surge models, and the calculated storm surge heights will be released to the public via 3) internet service. Two hindcastings, typhoons Maemi(2003) and Ewiniar(2006) were used to check the performances of this pre-operational storm surge system. The overall estimations were successfully simulated. The typhoon Nari that landed in Sep. 2007 in Korea was fully tested for our system to be a pre-operational storm surge prediction system. All procedures took about 30 minutes and the errors were less than 10%. The results emphasized the importance of meteorological inputs and fine-mesh grid system on the precise storm surge prediction.