동아시아 지역해 기후변화 전망에 대한 사례 연구

Abstract

A possible future state of the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS) has been investigated using a three dimensional ocean circulation model. An IPCC A1B scenario generated future condition projected by the GFDL CM 2.1 model has been applied to the boundary forcing for the EAMS regional ocean circulation model. Two kinds of experiments on the EAMS response to the future state have been set up, one is the solution of the 20th century case and the other is the solution of the 21st century case forced by the IPCC A1B scenario. For the 20th case, the model has been spun-up for 20 years under the forcing of the climate model produced present surface and lateral boundary conditions. From the final stage of the 20th century solution, the model has been integrated further 100 years with monthly and inter-annually varying boundary forcing estimated from the A1B case results. Transport change of major currents such as Kuroshio and that in the major Straits during the 100 years under the A1B scenario have been calculated as well as the surface temperature and the heat content change.