2007년 태풍 우사기와 나리에 대한 해양-태풍 접합 모델의 해양연직모수화에 따른 민감도

Abstract

We have developed a Synchronized Typhoon-Ocean Research Model (STORM) by coupling the GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) type tropical cyclone model and the HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) based Northwest Pacific circulation model. We applied the STORM on the simulation (five day forecast) of the typhoons Usagi and Nari in 2007 adopting different ocean vertical mixing schemes embedded in the HYCOM. Four major parameterizations such as K-Profile Parameterization (KPP), Mellor-Yamada (MY) level 2.5 turbulence closure model, NASA Godard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) level 2 turbulence closure model, and the Price-Weller-Pinkel (PWP) dynamical instability scheme are compared.It is found that the intensity prediction of typhoon using a coupled model is highly sensitive to the ocean mixing parameterizations, while the track forecast is not. The minimum central pressure (maximum wind speed) differences among the vertical mixing schemes are about 10~20 hPa (20~40 kn). This suggests that the ocean vertical mixing parameterization is very important for the proper simulation or forecast of the typhoon intensity using a coupled typhoon-ocean model. Comparing with the best track data, the STORM with GISS scheme shows the best performance for the simulation of the typhoons Usagi and Nari 2007.