IPCC AR4모형에서 전망한 북태평양 해양혼합층깊이 및 일차생산 변화 전망

Abstract

Ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) plays a crucial role in ecosystem mainly by control-ling availability of light and nutrients to support phytoplankton growth. In this study, we explore changes in the mixed layer depth (MLD) and its impact on primary production over the North Pacific Ocean in a warming world, based on the IPCC AR4 models. The projected MLD changes based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B reveal a robust decrease in the Kuroshio extension region (KE). The decrease in the KE can be attributed to both intensified upper ocean stratification due to the surface warming and freshening, and a robust weakening in the wind stress. Based on assumptions in which change in the nitrogen-nitrate supply is considered, the primary production is expected to be decreased by 10 ~ 30 %. On the other hand, timing changes in spring bloom are highly variable depending on models.