현재와 미래의 동중국해 해양순환 차이

Abstract

It is possible to some extent to examine the present and future ocean circulation of the East China Sea by analyzing simulation results of global climate models under the climate change scenarios. However, we simulated and compared the present and future ocean circulation in the East China Sea using a North Pacific Regional Ocean model because the global climate models with coarse spatial resolutions do not properly resolve the ocean circulation in the East China Sea. Atmospheric conditions for simulations of the present ocean circulation were derived from the simulation results of the global climate models for 20th century, while those of the future the 21st century projected by the IPCC SRES A1B. Six experiments were conducted with six different surface conditions, three for the present and three for the future climate conditions, extracted from the simulation results of three different global climate models, ECHAM5-MPI, GFDL-CM2.0 and MIROC3.2_hires. Even though the North Pacific Regional Ocean model simulated an ocean circulation in the East China Sea in detail, the simulated circulations are quite different each other depending on the prescribed atmospheric conditions not only under the present climate but also the future climate. Circulation changes between the present and future simulation derived from three pairs corresponding to the global climate model are also inconsistent. This discrepancy of simulated circulation according to the climate simulation of the global climate models makes it difficult to predict the future ocean circulation in the East China Sea.