북서태평양 해양-태풍 상호작용 모델링

Abstract

In general, typhoon can be forecasted using numerical weather forecast models or by statistical analysis. Typhoon path prediction is greatly improved much over the last decades. However it is still difficult to make accurate prediction for typhoon intensity. One of the major reasons is that the oceans role has not been considered well. By several researchers it is demonstrated that typhoon interaction with ocean is strong negative feedback. As the typhoon strengthens, the evaporation rate grows due to the increase in the surface wind speed. The enhancement of the moisture supply from the ocean leads to an increase in the latent heat energy that drives the circulation of the tropical cyclone. As the typhoon continues to intensify, the increasing surface wind stress generates strong turbulent mixing that deepens the ocean mixed layer. The associated SST decrease can then result in a reduction of the total heat flux (latent plus sensible) into the atmosphere and this can lead to a decrease in typhoon intensity (Ginis 2002). One of the significant constraints on typhoon intensity prediction is the lack of knowledge about the ocean response to the typhoon. In this study, we developed a coupled ocean and tropical cyclone model in the Northwestern Pacific and have tried to simulate some past typhoons. We analyze ocean response for the five typhoon cases which are rather good agreement with