해양-태풍 접합 모델을 이용한 온난화된 해양에서의 태풍 강도 변화 수치 실험

Abstract

Tropical cyclone intensity change in a warmed ocean has been investigated using a coupled ocean and tropical cyclone model named STORM (Synchronized Typhoon-Ocean Research Model). It has been developed for the Northwestern Pacific area by coupling the GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) tropical cyclone model and the HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model). We have reproduced comparatively well the typhoon USAGI in 2007 using the STORM and applied it for the state of warmed ocean assuming that the atmospheric condition is same to 2007 Usagi case. In the state of warmed ocean, The SST (Sea Surface Temperature) has been increased about 3~5 ℃ around typhoon path and the MLD (Mixed Layer Depth) deepens about 20m compared with the state of present ocean. The future USAGI in warmed ocean by the A1B scenario from the MIROC_3.2 hi-resolution model shows its intensity is increased very much compared to the USAGI 2007 case. It also cooled down the sea surface much larger because of the intensified typhoon strength. It is found that the typhoon-ocean feedback process also be intensified due to the global warming.